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273c18.jpg
Magic Bud
273c18
>>1062810
>sceptile at 56, Kingdra's still 46
Damage calculation:
Leaf Blade is 3HKO, ice Beam is 3HKO
Leaf Blade, Ice Beam
Leaf Blade, Ice Beam
Hyper Potion, Leaf Blade
Leaf Blade, Ice Beam KO
Flygon switched in
Dragon Breath is 2HKO!
Hyper Potion, Dragon Breath
Dragon Breath KO
So, if Kingdra doesn't try Double Team vs Sceptile, we're good, even without Toxic. Stetson might throw out a Toxic on the first turn, which would turn out about the same, except Kingdra would Rest at some point. If Kingdra tries to use Double Team and forces it by using both Hyper Potions, then that's potentially a problem...
Oh, if Sceptile uses Toxic on the first turn, then the poison damage will weaken Kingdra enough that two Leaf Blades will kill, without Kingdra ever dipping below 50% hp, which means the leader won't want to use a potion. I'm not sure how much Stetson wants to use Toxic in the full health scenario. Using Toxic on the first turn is also good insurance against Double Team, since a Rest is really dangerous against Sceptile anyway. Oh, I just found out that Rest guarantees 2 turns of Sleep status, so that's guaranteed death without any evasion, which means...
Toxic 90% acc(simulation assumes this hits), Double Team
Leaf Blade 75% acc, Double Team
Leaf Blade 60% acc, 45% chance of KO. Rest would happen here
Toxic 54% acc, sleep
Toxic 54% acc, sleep
Toxic 54% acc
roughly 90% chance to inflict Toxic at least once in those three attempts, so if the Leaf Blades miss there's still a 90% chance to win. That means a 94.5% chance to win if the first Toxic hits. Very nice! So that's a 85% chance to win overall, assuming a loss if the first Toxic misses, but let's calc that out a bit:
If the first Toxic misses:
Toxic 67.5% acc(again assuming a hit), Double Team
Leaf Blade 60% acc, Double Team
Leaf Blade 50% acc, 30% chance of KO. Rest
Toxic 45% acc x3
83% chance of one of those three Toxics hitting, so a 88% chance of victory if the first Toxic hits(30%+70%*83%). Which means, 85%+15%*67.5%*88%=94% overall chance of victory, assuming a loss if two rounds go by with no Toxics hitting. The chance of two Toxics missing, at 90% and 67.5%, is 3.25%, so I'm not going to bother with a third round of probability calcs.
tl;dr: Pretty much any straightforward strategy has a very high chance of success.
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