>>940086
You already found the problem: that scheme only guarantees profits if you have an infinite amount of money in reserve. Otherwise, you have a non-0 chance to get a loss streak and go bankrupt MUCH faster than you would if you weren't doubling your bet every time. Raising the stakes increases your risk every time you do it.
Also the theoretical profit is based off of the initial bet, which you want to be small so you don't go bankrupt as easily, so your profit is very low, which makes you play more to get more profit, so you go bankrupt anyway just from random fluctuation.
Casinos set a maximum bid to lower the risks for themselves. They don't want someone coming in with a million dollars, putting it all on red, then walking out with 2 million. Casinos mainly get profits over time based on volume, not via winning large bets, so there's no reason to take large bets.

For a more detailed description:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

The article doesn't say why losing streaks are more likely than you'd think. Let me explain:
Let's say you'd only go bankrupt if you lose 6 times in a row. You'd think "0.5^6 is only 1.5%, that's really low!" but in actuality, that's only valid if you play only six games. The reason is due to combinatorics.
In the 6 game situation, you go bankrupt in only one result out of 2^6 combinations, where all of them are losses.
If you play 7 games, there are 2^7 different combinations, and 3 combinations where you lose 6 games in a row- losing the last 6, losing the first 6, and losing all 7, though you never get to the 7th game in that situation so you may as well merge those two into one. 2/(2^7-1) is greater than 1/2^6.
If you play 8 games, that's 2^8 total and 4 bankrupt situations with 4 merges. 4/(2^8-4) is greater than the last one. It keeps going like this, obviously. I'd rather not continue giving examples since I'm doing it by hand. There's a formula for this of course but I can't be arsed to look it up.

>>940092
...permutations, not combinations.

>>940027
>Dead boar
Yes, make more leather and make cooling pots.

>Dreamer's Grotto
Chateau de Lizard Hole Dreamer. Or just The Chateau. the joke is that its actually just a shack

After all that make two bronze shovels, then while Jordy works Le Forge, Ar and Verm go mine more ore.

>>940041
This.

You know, Dragon's Grotto wasn't bad.

Questions that still need answering:

Arrayan: What were you doing before you woke up on the megachunk?

Vermillion: Where are the ruins you exited out of to find yourself here?

Jordy: Just how did you end up here?

As for a name; just “The Hideout” is fine. Honestly, after we get past the eclipse, we need to think about finding a bigger place to build off of; this always felt like a temporary home, and our ranks seem to be expanding. I don’t want to spend most of our time just building infrastructure to keep up with our growing population on top of consumable resource maintenance.

>>940225
This is true.
We still need to cross the forest to get to the ruined city.
Unless we get ourselves a mount or vehicle, We'll probably need to set up a new base on the other side for practicality's sake.

I just remembered we can dig in the forest for artifacts, though it will stir up trouble.

1/2 Heretic 2019/07/25(Thu)10:31 No. 940404 ID: a451fc
File 156407586165.png - (175.75KB , 1180x988 , Jordy Getting Clay.png )

>Jordy: Get clay
Jordy takes the stone shovel once again and heads to the mountain top in search of clay. One would think he'd be annoyed at having to run up and down the mountain twice to dig stuff up, but Jordy seems to enjoy the hike. Jordy collects [x150] Clay and returns to base.

>Jordy: How'd you get here?
JORDY: I walked.

2/2 Heretic 2019/07/25(Thu)10:31 No. 940405 ID: a451fc
File 156407586855.png - (712.47KB , 1369x1175 , Productivity x2.png )

With the clay and sand Jordy got a cooling pot can be made! Jordy molds the pots using [x50] Clay, bakes and glazes them, and finally puts the cooling pot together from Arrayan's instruction, all the while Vermilion makes more Quick-tan Rub from the boar's brain and slime which Arrayan uses it to tan the hide after he smokes the boar meat.

>Make tools and armor from bronze.
There's no bronze left anywhere! He can make two ingots out of what copper and tin ingots he has left, but it wouldn't be enough for armor. There's still plenty of ore to use to make more ingots though.

>Forging together Ghost metal with Iron that's been hardened with crushed exoskeleton shard, adorned in the front with woolly goat horn.
There are a number of issues with this. First, there's no guarantee the exoskeleton shards would be good for making alloys out of, it'd be a bad idea to use it for a shield straight away if it's not helpful to the material; Second, there's not enough ghost metal to really use in forging; Finally, even if all of these ingredients did work together perfectly, Arrayan can barely smelt ingots, there's no way he has the experience to make something like this.

After all the work Arrayan comes to an important decision...
ARRAYAN: Dragons Grotto!
SPRITE: What?
VERMILION: It's the name he chose for the base I'm guessing
SPRITE: Hmmm...I guess that's a pretty good name! Yeah! It's the name of a long lost fortress holding vast treasures and mystery! We gotta fill this place up with treasure one of these days.

>>940405
Alright let's forage and stock up on fruit and veg.
Any chance of forging steel ingots?

>>940405
Now that we've got a cooling pot, we can go get some meat and put it in there without having to worry about it spoiling!

>Tanning in process
Once that's done, go ahead and fix Joey's armor so it's not fragile.

After that, you can attempt to melt down those candle sticks you got from the ruins. Or if that doesn't work out, you can sharpen one of the ends of the candle stick to make it into a weapon.

Hmm... We'll have to experiment with alloying at a later date then. Now that I think of it, even if Arrayan did have the experience to make fancy shit like that his current tools are very rudimentary.

Well if armor and fanciness is out of the question today a Basic Iron Shield would be nice.
Pad the inside with Leather and/or wool, and Maybe put a Wooly Goat horn Spike on the front.

We still have no idea what the alchemical properties of the exoskeleton shards are(unless Verm actually gets around crushing and testing one) but we know they could make good arrowheads.

>ingots
How many ingots to make a shovel?
Also can we make a watertight wooden bucket?

Ar go scavenge some fruits and veg, Jordy go smelt the rest of the ore and those candle holders and Verm can do alchemist things or just hang around looking cute.
Once we get all the metal smelted we can decide what kind of shield to make and what kind, if any, metal armor.

>>940414
Are our pitfall traps camouflaged? They'll only work if the enemy doesn't see them until after the ground gives out under them and they fall onto the spikes.

1/3 Heretic 2019/07/25(Thu)20:07 No. 940450 ID: a451fc
File 156411042927.png - (682.25KB , 1296x1150 , Gathering Food.png )

Arrayan: Gather food
With a cooling pot at base food can be stored without too much worry of spoilage. With that in mind Arrayan finds more food to store for the eclipse. He pulls up a handful of tubers, 3 round fruits, and 2 batches of berries.

--FOOD--
-[x10] Bundles of Jerky
-[x5] Round Fruits
-[x1] Batch of Tubers
-[x2] Batches of Berries

2/3 Heretic 2019/07/25(Thu)20:07 No. 940451 ID: a451fc
File 156411043841.png - (682.61KB , 1414x1369 , Jordy Smelts.png )

Jordy: Smelt candle holders
Jordy bashes up the candle holders and melts them down in the furnace. They're smelted into [x3] Poor Iron Ingots. Jordy also smelts some of the iron ore into ingots too. He smelts [x9] iron ore into [x3] more Poor Iron Ingots. Finally, Jordy melts some of the iron scrap down to use. He melts [x9] Iron scrap into [x3] Iron Ingots.

Arrayan: Make Jordy armor
Once Arrayan returns to the Dragon's Grotto, he gets to work making Jordy armor using [x30] Leather. Jordy wears it underneath his tunic.

>Any chance of forging steel ingots?
It's possible as long as the materials present.

3/3 Heretic 2019/07/25(Thu)20:07 No. 940452 ID: a451fc
File 156411044476.png - (216.34KB , 658x739 , Iron Goat Horn Shield.png )

Arrayan: Make shield
Shields don't really come up a lot in survival situations...Arrayan isn't that familiar with making them out of metal, but he still tries his best. A full metal shield is a bit out of Arrayan's expertise, so he makes do with wooden planks, leather, and metal plating. the shield costs [x20] WOOD, [x10] LEATHER, and [x6] POOR IRON INGOTS. Arrayan also secures a woolly goat horn to the front of it for good measure.

Iron Horn Shield: An iron and wood shield with a goat's horn adorning the front. [DMG RED. = 3] [DUR = MID] [WGT = 4] (Only blocks physical damage)
--WEAPON TRAITS--
-[SHARP HORN]: Unarmed attacks against this shield harm the attacker

>Are our pitfall traps camouflaged?
Vermilion covers them up with twigs and leaves.

SPRITE: Everything's lookin' just peachy here! But we still have time before the sun sets. Is there anything else we need doing?

>>940451
>[x3] Poor Iron Ingots
>[x3] Poor Iron Ingots
>[x3] Iron Ingots
Hold on, are those Iron Scraps easier to turn into Iron Ingots or did Jordy just get better at forging?

>>940452
>anything else left to do?
I think building Jordy a bed was one of the things that we needed to do. Unless we already did that?

Other than that, I can’t think of anything else we could do.

>>940452
Improving our furniture and sleeping arrangements would be nice. We can also make some weapons. Since we have charcoal and limestone for flux we should be able to get some steel.

Do we have anything that would help pass the time during the eclipse? Maybe we could craft some dominos or playing cards (made out of... leaves?) or dice?

OH GOD we need a toilet too don't we

And water. We need to fill some jars with water.

>>940471
Toilet: Dig a pit, put planks over it. Cut a hole in the bottom. Put walls and a roof over it and add a bench with a hole matching the floor. Add door.

We will want to make a go of night-battle, make some flash-bombs to blind opponents so as to escape if night is too much for us.

>>940478
We’ll actually be able to do that during the day, since the night monsters will be active during the eclipse.

Have Verm Collect a Jug of water and some more medicinals at the pond.
With the cabin done he can do his alchemy inside, so if there's a quiet moment tomorrow he'll be free alchemize a bit.

Have Jordie and Arrayan make a big fuck-off wooden club for Jordi.
Put a single band of metal on the business end as a weight and as a place to mount the other wooly goat horn and boar tusks.
Wrap the handle in leather.

Doorstops.
Wedges to make it even harder for our fancy new door to be forced open.. maybe a door bar.


Actually, is that a push door or a pull door? If anything with half a brain can just pull it open, its protective value plummets.

>>940450
Ar have you been using the spices we got or are you saving them for when we can actually cook something.

>>940451
Smelt ALL the ore.
Also bronze shovel pls

>>940452
Man I was hoping for a Heater shield. What would happen if we used the Shelluk Shell instead of the horn?
Make a Buckler shield for the lazy snakeVerm.

>>940483
I think it's been established that Jordy can't fight, at all. He's better off using the crossbow me thinks.

>>940489
Indeed, which is why I suggest a club for him, as it's the simplest weapon.

The crossbow Is better, but it's ammo is extremely limited and he's not practiced with it. If an enemy gets the jump on us, or gets in close, or if we run out of ammo, or if the crossbow breaks, I don't want Jordy without a weapon.

1/4 Heretic 2019/07/26(Fri)13:49 No. 940508 ID: a451fc
File 156417419923.png - (197.51KB , 1084x847 , VermilionJug.png )

>Are those Iron Scraps easier to turn into Iron Ingots or did Jordy just get better at forging?
The scraps are just easier to make into ingots. in fact Jordy made an error in examining the ingot quality. The ingots made from the candlesticks should also be better than poor. In actuality it's [x6] Iron Ingots and [x3] Poor Iron Ingots.

>>940474
More materials need to be gathered for this structure to be built. STONE and WOOD to be exact

>Make doorstops.
The door already has a door bar barring it.

>Make some flash-bombs to blind opponents
No one really knows how to make one of those, but Vermilion did buy a flashbang from Desmond. He may be able to open it up to see how it works and possibly replicate it.

>Vermilion: Collect a Jug of water and some more medicinals at the pond.
Vermilion makes a couple of jugs using [x25] Clay each and uses them to store water from the pond. While he collects water, he also gathers what can from around the lake, all Vermilion can really find is another batch of Red Moss.

Vermilion returns to the Grotto to boil the water.

2/4 Heretic 2019/07/26(Fri)13:50 No. 940509 ID: a451fc
File 156417420599.png - (682.61KB , 1414x1369 , Jordy Smelts.png )

>Maybe we could craft some dominoes or playing cards or dice?
Jordy carves a set of dice and dominoes out of the woolly goat bones. Just in case anyone gets bored

>Smelt more ore
Jordy smelts more ore, this time he smelts [x6] Poor Copper Ingots and [x3] Poor Tin Ingots

3/4 Heretic 2019/07/26(Fri)13:50 No. 940511 ID: a451fc
File 156417425880.png - (398.29KB , 1737x1275 , JordyClub.png )

>Arrayan: Make Jordy a Boar Tusk Club
Arrayan uses [x20] WOOD, [x2] Poor Iron Ingots, and the boar tusks to craft a Boar Tusk Club.

Boar Tusk Club: A club made with boar tusks. [FG + 2] [DMG = 4 Bludgeoning] [DUR = MID] [WGT = 4]
--WEAPON TRAITS--
CONCUSSIVE: One attack from this club can lower an enemies [FG] by 1 for the duration of combat, once per combat.

4/4 Heretic 2019/07/26(Fri)13:51 No. 940512 ID: a451fc
File 156417426894.png - (190.61KB , 685x715 , Shelluk Buckler.png )

Arrayan: Make buckler from Shelluk shell piece
Arrayan gets to work on another piece of equipment. The buckler, being smaller, is easier to make then a full metal shield. The shelluk's shell spike is secure to the front with rope.

Shelluk Buckler: A small shield adorned with a shelluk shell fragment. [DMG RED. = 1] [DUR = MID] [WGT = 1] (Blocks physical AND energy attacks)
--WEAPON TRAITS--
SHELLSHOCK: This shield can shoot a jolt of stunning energy once a day, or until it's manually recharged.

SPRITE: Now we're really ready with our arsenal expanded!

>>940508
Take flashbang apart, see if you can replicate/improve it.

>>940511
Attach sharpened exoskeleton shards to club, create medieval fantasy equivalent of bat wif some nails innit.

>>940512
Neato.


So for equipment we have:
Mantis Glaive - Ar
Iron Spear - Ar
Stone Dagger - Ar
Bow - ?
Bronze Mattock - Tool?
Horn shield - Ar
Throwing Knives - Verm
Mantis Knives - Verm
Shelluk Buckler - Verm?
Horn Club - Jordy
Crossbow - Jordy
Iron Hatchet - Jordy?

Ar make everyone an Iron Dagger.
Maybe use sharpened exoskeleton shards in making Heater shield for Jordy?

>>940508
>More materials need to be gathered for this structure to be built. STONE and WOOD to be exact
If everyone really wants to make a toilet, then I recommend building it outside the cave. We don't want to be stuck inside with a terrible smell, right?

Of course, this also means that if anyone needs to go during the eclipse, there's a risk of getting attacked on the way to the toilet.

>>940512
That sounds useful.

>Manual recharge
I'm guessing that means after using the shield's ability, blocking an energy attack will recharge the ability.

Ok, is there anything else we need to do or are we ready for the eclipse?

So let's see.... Combat formations...
I'm Thinking:
Arrayan: Frontline DPS
Jordy: Support
Vermillion: Ranged DPS

Put the big Wooly Horn Shield on Arrayan, along with the Iron Spear. No other equipment besides his armor. His weapons are heavy and yet he must be fast, and time he spends doing status effect stuff is time not spent doing the "Deeps".

Give Jordy The Club, the Bracer, Most of the Healing Items, the Mantis Glaive, and the Mattock.
Jordy can run around healing, Replace a broken weapon for Arrayan, Stun and cause a debuff, and has some all-round defence one needs if they're going to be running around the battlefield.

Put the Throwing Knives, the Crossbow, All the poisons, the Mantis knife, and a single healing item on Verm.
He should be relatively safe on the backline most of the fight, doling out consistent damage and hitting the enemy with debuffs and poisons. He shouldn't be the healing but he's too delicate to not have his own health pot. The mantis knife is for when things go south.

>>940508
Verm, you can't hide your secret anymore. It's time for you to tell the truth.

The first potion you ever made didn't change your scale colors, it actually changed your gender, you used to be a female snake lady named Vicky! That's when you changed your name to Vermilion.

The second potion you ever made is what changed your scale color, when it was supposed to change you back into a girl!

>>940561
I don't like this.

>>940512
Well with any extra time we have left today we can make a steel hammer and pickaxe.

>>940561
Just because Verm would look great in a dress is no reason to go changing his gender. He can rock the manliest dress that ever manned just fine. Maybe something styled after a roman legionary? Maybe throw in some 19th century ruffling over the torso in bronze and ludicrous Evil-Grand-Vizier bladed serrated shoulder-pads?

>>940561
.....Kome, is that you?

>>940563
Yeah, let’s do this.

>>940563
I don't think we have any way to produce steel yet.
And regardless I'm REALLY against using our best materials to make tools before armor or weapons.

>>940563
Eh. The forge is outside. Even if we made better tools we wouldn't be able to use them tomorrow. We should make them after the eclipse when we're preparing to Make the Heavenly Machina, or Preparing to cross the Forest.

Also our Bronze Mattock is pretty good. We should probably sharpen and maintain it tomorrow but we don't yet need an upgrade in the Pickaxe department.

As for the hammer, a New hammer won't do us much good on it's own.
For a meaningful forge upgrade we'd need:
An Iron hammer. Preferably two.
An Iron Anvil.
A Chisel
Calipers
A stone or brick forge With an actual bellows.
A Sand bed for Casting Bronze.
Metalworking Gloves
And some premade forms for proper Ingots.

If we want to make steel we'd need to add a Quenching vat and oil for it, along with a ball mill to grind silica sand fine enough to be used as flux, But I think those might both beyond our parties current level of expertise.

Honestly It there's extra time, why don't we turn in early and pop our heads out tonight?
Maybe we can clear out a local baddie or two before they get pumped up by the eclipse tomorrow.

Heretic 2019/07/27(Sat)10:59 No. 940613 ID: a451fc
File 156425037684.png - (460.16KB , 1558x1064 , Mountain Cabin 2.png )

>>>940561
VERMILION: That...is definitely not what happened.

>Verm would look great in a dress
VERMILION: I have no legs! Technically I can only where dresses, or robes.

>Bathroom
Jordy and Arrayan mine out and cut down enough wood and stone to build a small add on to the Grotto. An out house attached to the cave, some extra clay is dug up to make a chamber-pot. So the smell won't be an issue, a window is installed leading to a dug hole outside of the cave. The window, of course, has a bar to secure it from being knocked down and climbed through. Since the structures only necessary for the eclipse, it can easily be re-purposed once it passes.

>Make steel
Arrayan starts to prepare for steel making, but realizes the process would take too long. Night would be upon them soon. It could be done with the fireplace inside, but a bellows needs to be made to help the flame. Vermilion gets to work making one using the [x10] Leather and [x10] WOOD.

With what can be done done, The group waits inside for the sun to set completely, from there they'll make their next move...

GAME SAVED to SLOT 1
-CONTINUE
==> QUIT

>>940613
OH NO YOU DO NOT GET TO BUILD UP THIS ECLIPSE EVENT AND THEN STOP BEFORE IT HAPPENS WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE.

Unless the whole eclipse would take up its own thread.

>>940618
I for one am fine with a thread long eclipse.
Please continue, unless burned out.

this is probably just the end of the thread

See if you can cover it all with camouflage before the night when we:

> CONTINUE

Okay guess there's a bit of a misunderstanding, that isn't a choice, the threads ending there

>>940635
But there will be another thread, hopefully? Just loading in some stored actions to fire off the next "first" update.

>>940635
Oh, Ok. So, how did you liked doing this quest? What are your thoughts?